Who will be the best CS:GO player in 2022? HLTV top 20 predictions
2022 will be the hardest for the makers of the annual HLTV top 20 of best players in CS:GO. Although FaZe dominated most of it, they appeared as quite a balanced squad without really outstanding personal performances. NAVI was on a slow decline, but s1mple was still strong, even with recent unfortunate events.
The stats give a puzzling picture, and individual achievements are close. Let's try to predict who will be crowned as number 1 this year, given what we know about HLTV ranking from the past years.
How does the HLTV top 20 work?
HLTV explained they approach many times, and although it doesn't give the complete picture, we can assume some major things about their ranking. Here are the rules as described in 2021.
1. Statistics: The ranking is heavily based on the numbers, but looking at year-long ratings alone won't tell you everything. Context is important, such as at which events players stood out and whether they performed when the stakes were highest in big playoff matches.
2. Awards: If you followed the ranking in previous years, you'll know MVPs and EVPs can make a difference. Not all accolades are born equal, however, as a big EVP (from a Major, for example) could mean more than MVP medals from smaller events.
3. Sample size: This is a ranking of the best of the best. To make it into the top 20, players have to show their worth against the best teams on a regular basis. If they haven't played at the top for long enough, the sample size is too small to judge.
4. Consistency: One of the factors in judging the player's year is his consistency, both from match to match and tournament to tournament. Although high enough peaks can make up for a lack of stability, occasional disappearances — especially in key moments and at the biggest tournaments — are likely to bring them down a notch.
5. Recency bias: While it is natural for fans to remember more from recent times, they look at an entire year's worth of performances when determining the ranking.
When will HLTV post the top-20?
Traditionally, the ranking are released in early January, a player per day. Last year, they changed the schedule slightly. The 20th place was announced on January 3, and the top-3 winners were revealed on the same day, January 19.
Who will get into HLTV top-20 in 2022?
Despite claiming to have a lot of criteria for the estimation, HLTV Top 20 doesn't differ that much from the basic website's yearly ranking. Especially if you sort them out by big events. When a gap is too big, personal achievements or major wins cannot close it.
For example, in 2018 and 2019, dev1ce had one of the best career achievements, but he was always 0.05-0.10 points behind. That difference didn't allow him to take the crown. Even the double Major victory couldn't.
S1mple is topping the charts, and it's easy to see that the players following him just don't have any prominent achievements. But the Major winners, broky and ropz, or Rio finalist stavn, are 0.1+ ranking points behind. Comparing other personal metrics doesn't help too much, either.
Based on these conclusions, it's safe to assume that s1mple will be the winner this year as well. Even if someone from the top tier will show a crazy performance at BLAST World Final 2022, most likely it won't be enough to beat him.
What about the other top-20 placements? It's a bit harder. Ropz and broky should appear higher on that list, but it's unclear if they'll beat sh1ro and ZywOo with their numbers. Maybe, BLAST World Final will define the top 3-4. Jame and EliGE or Hobbit might break into these rankings, along with someone from Outsiders.